Today as I looked through every chart of the top 120 crypto’s by market cap, it was just downtrend after downtrend – as in 100% long-term downtrends.
depressed stuff! But! There were two, yes just two, cryptocurrencies which appear to be at least turning their short-term downtrends around. I’ll investigate those in a second, as well as provide the customary look at Bitcoin and Ethereum.
- Polygon (MATIC)
- Quant (QNT)
- Bitcoin vs $US (BTCUSD)
- Ethereum vs $US (ETHSD)
I can see an inverted head and shoulders pattern and sufficient volume to indicate a capitulatory sell-off at the June lows. It has pushed higher with some excellent demand-side candles in July, and is now testing potential supply around $0.60-$0.70. The short-term downtrend ribbon (orange zone) appears to now be offering dynamic support, and on the next push through $0.70 the short-term trend is likely to pivot back to up.
view: Neutral, watching for a close above 25 Jun high of $0.626 to confirm new short-term uptrend upon which I would switch to a short-term bullish bias until a close below the 11 July low of $0.536. Long-term neutral until a close above long-term downtrend ribbon at $1.11.
(MATIC is 18th on the cryptocurrency market capitalization list and 6th on the DeFi TVL list)
One of the best demand-side performances from the June lows in the Top 100. Good progress through the $80 supply zone. Shallow pullback from the 10 July high of $90.25. It is now consolidating above the short-term trend ribbon (orange zone) which has turned higher. A couple more candle’s confirmation, and we could be looking at the only short-term uptrend in the Top 100! Candles and price action each demonstrate excess demand is returning and a resumption of buy the dip mentality. Key upside resistance at the long-term downtrend ribbon may cap gains in the near term, however.
view: Short-term bullish, buy pullbacks until a close beneath the short-term downtrend ribbon at $63.90, long-term neutral (no rocket ship emoji’s just yet!🚀🚀) until a close above long-term downtrend ribbon at $125.67.
(QNT is 47th on the cryptocurrency market capitalization list)
Of course, no review of crypto market would be complete with the usual squiz at Bitcoin and Ethereum. Neither looks any good, so, if you’re a masochist…read on!
Bitcoin vs $US (BTCUSD)
The Bitcoin trends remain firmly entrenched to the downside. The peak set on July 8 at 22,469 is a massive disappointment for the bulls. The short-term trend ribbon (light-pink zone) appears to have another claimed feeble rally. And that appears to be all Bitcoin is capable of at the moment, feeble rallies (certainly can’t refer to them as old fashioned ‘pumps’!) before the next dump sets in. As much as I am a true believer, the heart must give way to the head here.
Clearly, the supply-side remains in control of the price, and the demand-side appears powerless or unwilling to stop them. If by some miracle we pull out of the current dump before 17,585 cracks, and can close above 22,960, then there’s hope for 25,366. I couldn’t get excited about a meaningful recovery until we close above that point. If 17,585 does crack, well, I don’t even want to contemplate that scenario (the 2019 bull market high of 13,870 beckons!).
view: Bearish, sell rallies until a close above 25,366.
Ethereum vs $US (ETHSD)
Like Bitcoin, the Ethereum trends also remain firmly entrenched to the downside. If I squint, I can find some encouragement in the fact troughs are rising again (ie, 30 June 996 trough vs 18 June 880 trough). So, we’re back to about 50-50 in terms of demand-side versus supply-side candles.
But the elephant in the room is that short-term downtrend ribbon (light-pink zone). It’s killed so many fledgling rallies since the bear market began – why doubt it’s ability to kill this one as well? If we can close above it, and the 1281/1275 peaks from 26 June and 8 July respectively, the technical picture is going to be significantly improved. I think we’re a chance then to look up to 1700. If we crack again, as in below 880, there’s very little holding this up until the December 2020 peak at 676.
view: Bearish, sell rallies until a close above 1281.
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