Key Insights:
- It was a bullish Thursday session, with bitcoin (BTC) rallying by 5.73% to end the day at $21,098.
- Recession fears took a backseat, with improved market risk appetite across the US equity markets delivering support. There was no change in narrative, however, to suggest an end to the volatility.
- Technical indicators are bearish, with bitcoin sitting below the 50-day EMA.
On Thursday, bitcoin (BTC) rallied by 5.73%. Reversing a 3.60% slide from Wednesday, bitcoin ended the day at $21,098. It was the first hold onto $21,000 levels since June 15.
Bullish throughout the day, bitcoin rallied from an early low of $19,870 to a late high of $21,196.
Bitcoin broke through the First Major Resistance Level at $20,626. Despite the extended rally, bitcoin fell short of the Second Major Resistance Level at $21,298.
The pickup in market risk appetite delivered support, with the NASDAQ 100 gaining 1.62%. The NASDAQ had slipped by a modest 0.15% on Wednesday.
This morning, the NASDAQ 100 Mini was down 36.5 points.
BTC NASDAQ 240622 15 Minute Chart
Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index
After recovering from sub-10/100 levels on Wednesday, the Fear & Greed Index held steady at 11/100 for a second consecutive day. The Index showed no response to Thursday’s bitcoin rally, suggesting the persistence of downside risks.
The hold at 11/1000 left the Index deep in the “Extreme Fear” zone, reflecting investor fears of another sell-off.
Fear & Greed 240622
On Thursday, economic data from the Eurozone, the UK, and the US sounded the alarm bells. According to prelim private sector PMI numbers for June, private sector activity slowed, with inflationary pressures showing no signs of abating.
Fed Chair Powell’s second day of testimony provided little for the markets to go on, with the Fed now committed to bringing inflation back to target at any cost.
The upside on Thursday suggests that the markets may have priced in a recession. Incoming data will now be the gauge, though it will take time for the Fed’s policy moves to take effect. Supply chain disruption remains an issue, with the war in Ukraine also pushing inflation higher.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action
At the time of writing, BTC was down 0.37% to $20,020.
A mixed start to the day saw bitcoin rise to an early high of $21,174 before falling to a low of $20,972.
Bitcoin left the Major Support and Resistance Levels untested early on.
BTCUSD 240622 daily chart
Technical Indicators
Avoiding the $20,721 pivot would bring the First Major Resistance Level at $21,573 into play.
BTC would need plenty of support to move through to $21,500.
An extended rally would test the Second Major Resistance Level at $22,045 and resistance at $22,500. The Third Major Resistance Level sits at $23,373.
A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level at $20,243 into play. In case of another extended sell-off, bitcoin could test the Second Major Support Level at $19,394 and support at $19,000.
The Third Major Support Level sits at $18,069.
BTCUSD 240622 hourly chart
Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it is a bearish signal. Bitcoin sits on the 50-day EMA, currently at $21,117. Today, the 50-day EMA fell back from the 100-day EMA. The 100-day EMA eased back from the 100-day EMA, bitcoin price negative.
Another bitcoin pullback from the 50-day EMA would bring sub-$20,000 back into play.
A move through the 50-day EMA would give the bulls a look at $22,500.
BTCUSD 240622 4 hourly chart
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