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This week, Microsoft’s Surface team saw on stage in New York to unveil the three anticipated Surface updates, but Chief Product Office Panos Panay had two more things to wow the invited audience. Two dual-screen mobile devices designed to conquer the growing dominance of high-performance tablets and cutting-edge foldable smartphones.
What should we think of the Surface Duo and Surface Neo machines? What risks does Microsoft take and for what rewards?
© 2019 Bloomberg Finance LP
The obvious risk is actually in the foreground and not hidden at all. These devices will not be available until the Christmas season in 2020 in around twelve months. While there are a number of smart reasons for early announcement (including anticipating leaks to control history), Microsoft is risking the Osborne Effect. If consumers decide to put off buying a “dual screen” device, it will be with third-party hardware – there are no Microsoft products that Duo or Neo will collide with, so I think there is a risk that is worth entering into.
There is also the question of software. The Surface Neo is expected to run Windows 10X – a stripped-down version of Windows 10 that was developed for Intel-powered devices with multiple screens – and the smaller Surface “Not A Phone” Duo actually runs on Android with a skin similar to that of Windows 10X user interface looks very similar.
Microsoft needs to provide developers with a story about how apps are encoded for these devices using a mix of Android, Windows 10X, web apps, Windows Store apps, and the legacy Win32 apps. Windows Phone’s biggest problem at startup was its lack of solid app support, and that was enough to limit its rollout of beautiful devices like the Nokia Lumia 800. Did Microsoft Learn Its Lesson?
I would also mention a tiny touch of Ferris Bueller – life moves fast – and what looks mind-blowing and breathtaking on a staged New York launch in October 2019 could completely miss the pace of this decade by October 2020 than last, but Microsoft runs the risk of being outclassed by a faster manufacturer.
© 2019 Bloomberg Finance LP
On the other hand, there’s a lot to like about this approach. First of all, Microsoft doesn’t fly alone. Although the launch event naturally focused on the Surface Duo and Surface Neo, Microsoft is pushing “Dual Screen” as a new category. I have no doubt that the larger Surface Neo will be complemented by Windows 10X designs from Dell, HP, and Asus.
Part of the reason for the one year lead time is to give Windows partners the ability to build and develop their own devices and to increase the addressable base for developers.
Although Microsoft has lost to Google to have the dominant mobile operating system, in recent years it has been humble enough to end the battles for mobile operating systems and move towards the service layer (i.e. just above the operating system layer). Microsoft’s cloud-based services have extensive mobile apps, and Redmond has a wealth of Android (and iOS) experiences such as Teams, Outlook, OneNote, and the other mobile apps attest.
The leap to an Android-powered device (which appears to be the Surface Duo, though I suspect the exact software is still in flux) is a step up, but not a huge step. A year of public testing in addition to what will already be gained in private tests, besides experience with app development, is another question, but maybe not as much as many think.
Finally, it’s worth noting that the strategy shown this week is still in line with the current mission. The Surface X, Surface Pro 7, and Surface Laptop 3 were all expected (although I had my money on Surface X as a Surface 7). Given the radical nature of the Surface Pro and Surface Book when they were launched, the Surface Duo and Surface Neo bring the same revolutionary game to the mobile space.
And while Microsoft’s hardware is still demonstrating what can be done in this area, much like Google’s Pixel and Nexus hardware, it really does support the cloud-based services that power the entire Windows ecosystem.
© 2019 Bloomberg Finance LP
I’m glad Microsoft avoided the obvious and business-safe approach of keeping everything under wraps (or at least trying to keep everything under wraps) until the Neo and Duo were ready to launch. There are downsides to playing the long game in public, but I think the benefits of this more open approach will pay off more.
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