Timmer, a director of Global Macro Fidelity, has shared his view on the stock-to-flow model widely used by cryptocurrency investors and enthusiasts. The stock-to-flow metric is one of the most commonly used tools for determining the next high or low.
The close-up below shows that this more modest supply model has been (in hindsight) more accurate than the original S2F’s projections for this halving cycle. /15 pic.twitter.com/65WgS4Hody
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) June 2, 2022
The problem associated with the S2F model is scarcity which cannot drive the price alone. And scarcity cannot be used to push the value of an asset alone if it is not adopted, used, or has another usage.
Thus, Timmer has built an S-curve model which mimics the mobile phone adoption curve. This also helps to determine Bitcoin’s future adoption rate and overall network growth. He further added that the model’s accurate prediction of Bitcoin’s meteoric growth could have been accurate because of the massive rates of cryptocurrency adoption. He further doubts that the model will work from now on as the digital gold has spiked to almost 4600 billion.
The supply limitations that currently exist on Bitcoin are also added to the chart of Timmer, which helps to determine the exact growth and adoption pace of Bitcoin. According to these three different models, the Bitcoin is most likely to rise to $63,000, even further at $144,000 it can rise to the best.
In that case, the movement of Bitcoin will be almost an exact copy of the mobile phone S-curve demand model. Bitcoin is currently trading at $30,345, losing more than half of its value since reaching the all-time high in November.