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XRP Return to $0.40 Hinged on FTX Updates and the SEC v Ripple Case

Key Insights:

  • On Wednesday, XRP rose by 1.71%. Following a 3.11% rally on Tuesday, XRP ended the day at $0.38159.
  • XRP extends its winning streak to three sessions on Ripple news, the Fed, and easing FTX contagion risk
  • However, the technical indicators remain bearish, with XRP sitting below the 100-day EMA, signaling a possible return to sub-$0.35.

On Wednesday, XRP rose by 1.71%. Following a 3.11% rally on Tuesday, XRP ended the day at $0.38159. Notably, XRP avoided sub-$0.36 for the first time in four sessions.

A bearish start to the day saw XRP fall to an early low of $0.36775. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.3583, XRP rose to a late high of $0.38205. However, coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.3848, XRP eased back to end the day at sub-$0.3820.

There were no updates from the ongoing SEC v Ripple case to influence, leaving XRP in the hands of the broader crypto market.

FTX Contagion, the Fed, and the SEC v Ripple Case Delivered Support

While there were no SEC v Ripple case updates, investors remain hopeful of a favorable outcome.

A series of Amicus Brief filings demonstrating XRP use as a utility and the William Hinman docs could push the SEC towards a settlement rather than risk losing. The price of losing could be too high for SEC Chair Gary Gensler and the team. Following the collapse of FTX, Gensler is hoping for greater authority over the crypto space.

November 30 is the next court date, which will draw plenty of interest. Parties must file summary judgment reply briefs under temporary seal. The public will have access to redacted versions on December 5.

The summary judgments will reveal the SEC’s battle plan and any intent to continue shielding the William Hinman speech-related docs.

Ripple’s success in Main Street has delivered further XRP price support. However, easing FTX contagion also contributed to the move toward $0.40.

XRP price action

At the time of writing, XRP was down 0.55% to $0.37950. A bearish start to the day saw XRP fall from an early high of $0.38087 to a low of $0.37784.

XRPUSD 241122 daily chart

Technical Indicators

XRP needs to avoid the $0.3771 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.3865. A return to the Wednesday high of $0.38205 would signal a breakout session.

In the case of an extended rally, the bulls would take a run at the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.3914 and $0.40. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.4057.

However, a fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.3722 into play. Barring an extended sell-off, XRP should avoid sub-$0.3650 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.3628. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.3485.

News of crypto platforms freezing withdrawals or filing for bankruptcy would likely overshadow the latest Ripple news and send XRP toward sub-$0.35.

XRPUSD 241122 hourly chart

The EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.

At the time of writing, XRP sat below the 100-day EMA, currently at $0.38694. The 50-day EMA narrowed to the 100-day EMA, while the 100-day EMA eased back from the 200-day EMA. The signals were mixed.

A move through R1 ($0.3865) and the 100-day EMA ($0.38694) would bring R2 ($0.3914) and $0.40 into play. However, a fall through the 50-day EMA ($0.37443) would give the bears a run at S1 ($0.3722) and sub-$0.37. The 200-day EMA sits at $0.40805.

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